I've been busy.. I read Tara's post below.. as well as this one.. and pretty much see Matt's point.

Here's what happened.. It rained in the plains.. again my state.. Kansas had subsoil out west to start this year.. "make hay while the sun shines.." or in this case.. "plant dryland corn while you got the subsoil moisture.."

Which is what occured and the reason why Kansas corn acres are up.. (sing it with me now..) 630 k acres yoy..

as well as the rest of the fringe accounting for most of the 5.8 myn acre increase..

41% or 45% of that increase was in the plains.. ND, Tx, Nebr, SD, Ks, etc.. which is why I'm coming in LOWER than the PF Tour.. another 2.?? bushels nationally..

I'm gonna say we do 168.. and 14.6 byn bushels.. there ya go.

That being said.. "this was a good year."  and even though it's a lot of dryland.. some of it will be over 100 bushels.. hearing some 120's.. 130's  (as well as some 40's and some 50's.. not everyone got an inch of water the week before that 106 degree heat.. on my farm I'll probably have both extremes.. 120 bushel.. some less than 60..??)

Anywho.. as things cycle.. the fringe will probably not plant this much every year.. Sorghum acres were down.. while corn acres increased this year.. could be the opposite next year...???

During some of the dry of they dry years.. there's ground that goes fallow..

.. plus the farm programs.

Tara had a very good post below.. but he usually DOES NOT address the production risks that we face.. (as I understand it he's in the valley.. up there..)  My dryland whole farm averages range from 1 bu to 140.. that's a heck of a spread.. to try to market ahead of time.. we were looking like 140 again this year till that 3rd week of July heat wave.. "ouch."

"so it goes.."

I gotta run.. but things are never as good.. nor as bad.. as they seem.

later.