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Too early for ARC
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sand85
Posted 7/25/2016 22:24 (#5432602 - in reply to #5432448)
Subject: RE: Too early for ARC


C IL
Well, they are specific to your county.

The guarantee price for 2015 year is $5.18, IIRC, and the lower limit for 2016 is $4.89, also IIRC.

We are approaching 10/24's of the 24-month marketing period, and I would assume without checking that the price to date for the 2016 marketing year is in that similar $3.65 range as the 2015 market year price right now.

Unless something really exciting happens I can see that price being dragged down some but not much through next March, where we are almost 3/4's of the way though the ARC marketing year.

Locally we had counties last year that triggered where calculated revenue loss above guarantee was at least twice the capped limit (capped around $80/ac or so). This year, looks like very promising yields locally, so probably no ARC calculated loss for 2016 unless prices really fall out of bed.

I don't think most who signed up for ARC envisioned such steep price declines, especially given land-grant economists suggesting prices averaging around the $4.25 area in the decade going forward at the time of sign-up.

I will say the program is achieving the stated goal here on this farm - stabilizing revenue declines in an anomalous year. Huge rains in June 2015 took half the local corn crop, while guys 20 miles north had better corn in 15 than the amazing 14 crop. That's how the cookie crumbles sometimes.
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