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Buxton ND | No DC crop acres are not a huge deal,tho it is added production. A early wheat harvest in general combined with a $3.00 rally and big drought thoughts of alot more IMO guys will risk planting DC acre's in some area were they normal do not. Then look as the rains in Kansas, my guess would be nearly even acre that wheat stubble that could IS DC beans.
Total principal crop acres from the March 31st to the June 30th have already seen a fairly big miss. I did a post a month or 2 ago on the numbers.
As far a China, not the first time China has manipulated the bean market 1996/97, 2004 and 2012. Bought a pile of beans in 2012 drought, then oops we bought @ TOO high of a price = cancel = buy them back later at a lower price. Very roughly speaking $3-4 lower this coming out of the pockets of the our producers. In the mean time our Brazil counter parts planted ALOT of beans the fall of 2012 followed by ALOT of 2nd crop corn. Enough 2nd crop to delivery to the east coast even heard rumors some floated up the Mississippi and right into Mexico our best year in year out buyer of corn. Its the same old same old super high prices and farmers PLANT MORE, this includes WORLD WIDE***** $8.50 corn and nearly $18 beans of 2012 = Earl Butz saying "Plant fence row to fence row" with out saying a word.
"Why would China auction off beans at a low point instead of at the high a couple of weeks ago?" ? ? ?
Sit back let the prices run higher get every acre possible planted in the USA would be my guess. With our $3 bean rally, the US $$$ vs the REAL equaled ALL TIME RECORD high prices in Brazil, my guess clearing new land in Brazil was full steam ahead the past months. Look at M/J/July of 2004 both in ZS price and the historical export data. China did not just fall of the carrot truck, NOT the first time that China has in part crashed the bean market in July.
The Boom/Bust cycles in Agland have happened for 100 years. We've had the BOOM, made massive increases in world wide production, now we're in the BUST side. AKA the 1970's we have not gotta to the 80's yet. Boom to Bust even as I heard many times "Its different this time around,,, we have ethanol" With my local cash corn bid spending most of the winter $3ish or sub $3,,, new crop bid today @ 2.72 we've ALL READY proven this wrong.
As for a strategies to lock you into 4.00-4.40 ZCZ,,,,, your broker made a little money on commission yeah. WHO CARES those prices are like *****GOLD IN THE BANK RIGHT NOW***** Yeah its not $5-6 corn but your gonna to be a happy camper depositing that check "off the combine" Like my crop insurance man has always said "saving penny's to cost you dollars" | |
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Have some puts deep in the $ what now?
