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Buxton ND | I lifted a $11.00 put a week ago tonight for $1.01 payed .48 = banked .53 these traded as high as 1.49 on Friday lifted too early. My mistakes since 2012 have been lifting probable hedges too early and waiting/wanting a bounce to re-hedge. Last fall I went over-broad the other way and lifted TOO late. JUST RIGHT from the "Red Riding Hood" story would have been as a shut the end-gate on the last load at the shuttle loader. BTW that is a TRUE HEDGE.
Weather has been wet, forecast is cooler and wet late/er week. Michigan state IS starting to get rain. Been told DC beans out east look awesome. IMO USDA has not accounted for all these DC acres yet. A $3 rally puts double crop where there is NOT suppose to be DC. Level of PP acres will be low this year, part of this was amounted for in the last report stay tuned.
Spec money is STILL way too long beans given this weather. Give of 2-3 week more of rain their way WAYYYYY TOO LONG. Corn has already taken out last winters lows. A couple of more weeks of rain my guess would be beans will follow corn.
As in past years when bean prices have crashed China has a history of canceling. Spec money too long + some cancellations = ugly possible limit down day. IMO China is playing this market well, they have been delaying auctioning off beans til last week. Round # 1 was early last week/week before I dont remember round 2 was Friday and round 3 is coming probably this week. CAN NOT auction of government stocks (reserves) unless they have been stock-piling.
There's other stuff here I'm not putting in print, I see a big bad bean bear. Scale of 1 to 10, 10 being bullish I'm a 2. I will be holding my hedges roughly 2 weeks then see what I think at that time. | |
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Have some puts deep in the $ what now?
