Posted 7/24/2016 12:53 (#5429543 - in reply to #5429423) Subject: RE:Evidence?
North Central Illinois
You are correct Dave. It does seem like everyone is at one end of the spectrum or the other. I try to remain objective and start every year planning for an average to above average crop and adjust accordingly throughout the year. Honestly some guys start calling for record acres and record crops a year ahead of time and then there are the guys who start killing the coming crop in February every year and are pretty sure the following year won't be any good either. Seriously, what in the hell good does that do anyone? My dad always told me if you plan for failure you will surely live up to your expectations. Some of the in season crop killing I make room for and understand. If you are in an area that was pounded with rain and flooded out in the spring or you are burning up in June or July it is difficult to remain objective and realize that maybe things aren't near that bad in most other places. Same the other way. If you have had plenty of rain all year and good stands with tall green corn in July it does not mean that everyone else does. It takes some objective reports from around the country or a big old road trip to sort the wheat from the chaff. Then there are the guys that swear up and down that the crop might look good from the pickup but boy when you get out in it you will be shocked by how bad it is. Come on! Unless you have had biblical amounts of rain or severe drought most anyone can get at least a thumbnail sketch of what crop conditions are like by driving down the road. A lot of people on this board are under the impression that NAT carries a lot more weight with the traders than it actually does. If any traders do look at this sight I'm sure they laugh themselves silly with some of the nonsense they see on here. It doesn't stop guys from thinking they can come on here and talk the market up or down though.
When ear size is determined
