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Hrsw scenarios?
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Posted 5/22/2016 06:03 (#5313976 - in reply to #5313686)
Subject: RE: Hrsw scenarios?


Buxton ND
Worst case follows KE to 4.50ish and blows out 2009's low.
Best case, keeps raining down south,,, Kansas learns what scab and vomitoxin is (fungicides can only do so much) (( plus those wheat's are just not breed for disease)) and we're the only quality wheat in the country and $8.00 YES I actually did say that.
Watch the exports. Canada maybe a tad short on wheat by next winter, watch US Dollar vs. the Loonie.
Watch the carry to H or N and play basis, don't just watch,,,,,,,,,,, be willing to sell it.
DO NOT be afraid to lock in basis and the futures price at different times, flat pricers have been getting the KY Jelly treatment.
High pro wheat (15.5-16% put it in the bin and sit tight til next year.
Probably sell the WW planting carrot and our deer hunting rally next fall, VERY seasonal rally.

Beans been the hot hot market, I think their eyeing corn now, what if they get the hots for MWE ?
MWE has been the LEADER in exports, sorry winter wheat guys.
The different grains do tend to take turns leading.
Not too long ago the spec money were record short ZW and KE, MWE they've had a small net LONG for month, see I can keep my mouth shut about somethings :o)
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