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http://swkswx.blogspot.com/ update
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JonSCKs
Posted 5/21/2016 10:19 (#5312974)
Subject: http://swkswx.blogspot.com/ update


Jeff has another good weather update out..  ( http://swkswx.blogspot.com/ )

In the previous post I did last Friday (read it by clicking here), I discussed the wet and cool period that was expected.   The following map shows the estimated rainfall across the region...(click for a larger map).


There was very generous amounts across a large area.  But there were also areas that did not receive much at all, which is very disappointing (and I hope it's not a trend).

In the last post I also discussed that soil temperatures would likely tumble.  I only have Dodge City as an example, but indeed there was quite a drop.  At 2 inches the temperature varies quite a bit from day-to-day anyway.  But, there was a decrease from a high of 70 degrees to a low of 52.  At the 4 inch depth, the variance went from 67 degrees down to 53.  Also, because of the cloud cover, cold airmass and some precipitation recently, the average temperature during the past 23 days has also plummeted.  At the Dodge City airport, the period from April 27th through May 19th tied as the third coldest  on record.  That is pretty significant.  (click for a large version)




 Now attention turns to a developing May pattern that will likely produce an extended period of daily severe weather.  Initially this weekend the threat will be limited in width (but stretch quite a bit north and south - see the graphic).

For Saturday (approximate location of the greatest threat


For Sunday (approximate location of the greatest threat)

Monday through Friday the threat will shift east quite a bit.  As far as rainfall, the western fringes will have to battle dry air coming off the higher elevations.  Thus, the following graphic from WPC....

 
If this rainfall prediction for the next week verifies, there will be parts of the far western high plains that will not have received much rainfall for May.  Thus, we might start showing signs of drying out. I still am optimistic for at least June and into July, as far as rainfall possibilities and limiting the scorching windy heat.  More on that later....
 

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