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NC corn commitments
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Posted 5/20/2016 05:57 (#5311124 - in reply to #5310957)
Subject: RE: Old crop corn sales since Jan 1.



Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow
Since Jan 1 corn sales have exceeded 1 MMT per week 11 times out of 19 weeks. In contrast, last year there were only 2- million plus weeks. While it is true this year's total of shipments and outstanding sales are running behind recent years from Sept 1 (the beginning of the marketing year). I didn't take time to calculate total new crop sales during the period from Jan 1, it is clear that that they are easily twice as much as last year and other typical years.
The current estimate of this year's corn sales may very well grossly under estimated.
And the reason is simple. Take a look at the CPC's precipitation times series for central Brazil for the past month & half. Central Brazil has received between 1/4 & 1/3 the normal rainfall, some places less. The last FAS report out of Brazil in the third week of April doesn't begin to take into account the lack of precip since them. If you look at Cordonier's Brazilian Ag by month, late April thru May is the critical period for pollenation & grain fill for second crop corn. Mato Grosso alone produces 36% of the second season corn crop. 2/3's of the second crop, 30-some MMT is produced in the very region that is most severely effected.
When they start running those combines in the few days you'll hear a different story.
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