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Buxton ND | JD that's why you wait til a KR is confirmed by closing lower the following 2 days is the general rule of thumb. Learned that from Ken Morrison at the start of the E-boom years. Beans lower today, lower tomorrow would be confirmed. Where-ever we end up in this down-leg, do not be surprised if we trade back to 50 or 62% of the move down. Corn did this after the high in 2012 which WAS a head-fake/suckers rally,,, suckering in those last few longs near or at the top as the big boy traders slipped out the back door. There's ways to know/figure this out, I call them "Goodies", they working 100% prefect in the days and weeks to follow in 2012 even tho everyone and their Uncles were super duper BULLISH.
Will say this again, with the carry-over stocks we have plus world carry-over, big increases in world production one needs to get $7-8 corn out of your mind. The older guys/our Fathers and Grand Fathers learned in the 1970 and 80's once land is put into production really hard to let it go back to grass or tree's. UNTIL Uncles pays you to do it. We saw this in the 1950's in the old soil bank days, 80's was the "set-aside" program and more recently CRP
Take a trip up to northern MN, centered on Thief River Falls. 10 year backs (alot of it) used to be what I call swamp CRP for miles, before CRP is was cows. The Monsoonal years it was ducks. Now its corn/beans/wheat with a fair chunk tiled with pumping stations. Many local Electric Co-op's have been run ragged running in power to the pumps/bins/shops/sheds. If they go broke someone else WILL step in the bat. Spend $600-800 an acre tiling it their not rolling over and play dead with $3.00 Maybe its only 120-125 bushel APH ground but land costs are a faction of that prime 15k dirt. IMO this is something the guys at the heart of the corn belt just do not seem to get. | |
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Understanding chart signals
