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| The reason volumes are light in afternoon is because it settles and remains open, which is stupid. Would like to see time and settlement expanded an hour.
On the cattle, who knows. I have no idea what's happening. Beef imports down dramatically this past week compared to last year, but just because last year was so high. Imports still at a high level year to date with prior years. A pretty size able cash trade in Nebraska of which the packer is willing to contract out couple weeks for this weeks price. Not just buying for the next week like they have been. 206 (129.78)cash trade Neb vs 130 board so basis is pretty normal and Has improved to about even. To me this is a great sign and setup for cattle feeders.
Someone asked about April June spread. In my opinion should probably be hedged in April for May or June cattle to protect possible basis collapse but as it goes into expiration think the spread goes widely extreme on the realization of weather. Not that I think market is going higher, which seasonally if does, just think the spread goes to extreme levels.
I got a wild hair and went long feb short April last week around .15. Will just hold and see what it does. Think a falling futures helps me more than an up in cash price. Was bear spread April December but lifted the April August portion last week at .50 and .75 profit each. Didn't like that I had every bear spread on til December and took a pity profit.
I am left with August December which is about
-.80 and could see -4 pretty easy this summer. A value play. Won't settle for less than -4.
Edited by GOMSK 2/14/2016 08:32
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Cattle
