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Frytown, Iowa | Hi Dave, if I understand your charts then you would think that the rolling of dec to march will drag march down some?
I don't know when the continuous rolls over to March contract but if it was to happen Friday we would be looking at a possible touch of the upper median line just from the roll itself. This could be a good area for a short with a stop above the rested line (3.75) at 3.76 an entry at 3.72 (if we roll) and a target of 3.46 buyers... A 1:6.5 risk:reward trade. Or you could move your stop up a bit for safety to 3.78 and still have a risk reward better than 4
The fact this forks upper median line keeps getting tested may show indications that the fork is too steep. A close above 3.89 on a daily would in my mind show a change in short term direction but until that happens trend is still down. Even then I would pry throw up a down sloping mod shiff fork instead of an upsloping fork.
Thanks for your thoughts
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