Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | I wasn't going to comment on the recent Commitment of Traders reports until the next report confirmed the trend but I just realized they probably will delay it at least until next Monday. So, here goes.
There has been a continual commentary about how short the large traders have been and the degree to which they maintain that position. I think it is important to look carefully at all the available information concerning their positions in as much detail as possible. Below are two charts showing the COT corn (futures only) short and long positions of the five categories of futures traders for the past several years. I would like to point out that in the recent past few weeks four of the five categories of traders, commercials, swap dealers, other reportables and non-reportables have gone increasingly long. At the same time Managed Money has basically held their long positions constant. In sharp contrast, Managed Money has take up the increasingly short counter position. It is well understood that one of the basic functions of Managed Money in the futures market is to provide the liquidity necessary to make a market. In light of this move by Managed Money is consistent. The problem is, if you lump the Managed Money's movement with the other three speculator categories you miss the move because it looks like they have all gone short.
If you look carefully at the past few years of the COT you don't find the situation where most of the trader categories make similar moves in the same direction particularly at this time of the year.
Does this mean that the price of corn will rise? I don't pretend to know. But I think it suggests that some traders think that it is at least a possibility.
For what it's worth.
 (COT old crop corn longs-page-001.jpg)
 (COT old crop corn short-page-001.jpg)
Attachments
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 COT old crop corn longs-page-001.jpg (117KB - 30 downloads)
COT old crop corn short-page-001.jpg (117KB - 33 downloads)
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Weekly Crop Loan report.. farmers add 50 myn bu corn up to 221
