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BUBBLE? Anyone else see this?
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Jim
Posted 10/6/2015 17:08 (#4826501 - in reply to #4826465)
Subject: RE: BUBBLE? Anyone else see this?


Driftless SW Wisconsin

Sure is a modest chap, isn't he???  I wonder how many head he owns?

Seems to be blowing his own horn on data and topics (cattle bio cycle) we have discussed here many times. 

He is also distorting data to help make his article a self fulfilling prophecy. For Example the difference between heifers % of slaughter between July 2014 and July 2015 appears to be a whopping 2% (26% to 24%) and not a whole lot different than the 30% or so it appears to be an average for the last 10 years. Not exactly earthshaking but can seem significant/magnified by choosing the correct scale for the RH side of the chart.

He ignores the effects of the SW USA/Texas drought in bringing cattle to slaughter and reducing the USA cow herd and the long process of starting to rebuild, not expand, herds in that area.... Barely a mention of high end beef exports...

More focused on creating stock movements and padding his resume than earthshaking news, imho.



Edited by Jim 10/7/2015 09:51
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