Occasionally I zoom out and look at the slightly longer term picture in KC wheat. This has been brought up before many times, but I am always amazed by how far back this line of balance was able to be seen and how valuable it has been for such a long time:

The rule since 2013 in KC wheat has been to not sell if you're below the upper median line (UML) of the red fork and sell if you're above the UML of the red fork. If that is the only rule a guy had followed for almost 3 years now, his marketing in KC Wheat would have been stellar for 3 years running.

Additionally, the amount price has been able to stretch below the red UML has been less and less most every time it has gone below the red UML. Finally, pure logic tells us that price cannot follow the red UML forever as it's quite clear that price will never go to 0. So when this rule no longer works, it will be because you should not necessarily sell when it goes over the red UML, rather than you should start selling when it's below the UML.

This is a huge over-simplification, but I believe it's a valid one. I'm not saying that wheat cannot or will not go down further from here (I could see KC wheat going to $4.30 or a little lower even possibly). It's just that I think there will be better places to sell in the future if you have unsold wheat or if you're getting very depressed on prices and are considering selling next years wheat to prevent further bloodshed. Everyone is going to be a bear when it's time to be a bull.