Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | Take a look at his report on prospects for Argentina's 2015/16 corn hectares.
Quote: "There are numerous reason why corn is losing popularity in Argentina including: low prices for corn, the high cost of inputs such as seed and fertilizers, high land rents, high cost of freight from distant production areas to port facilities, limited credit for production loans, lower yields relative to soybeans, and government interference in the corn export market that can artificially lower the domestic price of corn."
He mentions a prospective decline in corn hectares of 10-30% citing one estimate at 20% decline.
Then go look at his report about why Brazil will continue to increase soybean acres and decrease corn acres. Soybeans do well in Brazil, corn not so much (half the yields of the US).
Surprise, surprise South American producers respond to price & cost of production just like US producers do. So the question becomes how is South America going to export corn which it very well may not even plant.
The thing that's really interesting to me is: I already know exactly how many acres of corn I'll plant next year. How do I know? I happen to know exactly how many bags of corn seed I can afford. It is exactly all that seed that I paid for but didn't get planted this year. I choose not to send it back because the dealer told me I would have to buy it back next year at the higher price. Now you ask, why can't you buy more seed if you choose? For the simple reason that the combination of low yields and low price this year will guarantee there won't be the money to buy more next. And on top of that there'll be no money to buy corn fertilizer.
That will also guarantee more soybeans acres here. Why, they're cheap to plant and cheap to grow. Ironically, that's also the case in Brazil & Argentina.
So when you fellows talk about how South America (and everywhere else) cuts in on the US corn exports just remember they are undercutting us with cheaper than our already cheap corn. |
a little perspctive on the crop size.
