| djmcountryboy - 6/30/2015 18:22
The USDA Report says 88.897 intended corn acres.
93% harvested
equates to 82.675 million acres
A 13 billion bushel crop would need a national yield of 157.25bpa
Bean acres:
Intended at 85.139
94% complete as of Monday's Report
equates to 80.03 million planted
leaving 5.1 million to plant
Is it safe to say half of the 5.1 million does not get in or not??? I don't know. If so, we take 116 million bushels out of the carry using the USDA number of 46bpa and 99% harvested.
How much of this is priced in???
Don't know!!!
USDA is using a 91.23% harvested on this report. Slightly below the last 2-years. I don't know if they adjust much but contrast with 2002 @ 87.8 harvested and most years in the early 2000's below 91% harvested.
That leaves 81.1 harvested right now.
Arlan Suderman isfloating a 160 and declining yield on his closing report. If we use these unbiased figures we come up with 12.976 Billion Bushels. |
If the arithmetic is correct...
