We're seeing the ethanol grind ramp back up as we enter the summer driving season.  The past 8 week usage for domestic as well as exports has run just under 950 k bbls per day.  We've seen domestic production slow down for maintenance but this week popped a decent number at 958 k bbls.  This is the time of year that South American production enters the export markets so that is probably a little bit of a head wind but we are still exporting some product although that has backed off.. The domestic market will be the main play for the summer then we'll see exports improve during the offseason.

No imports were reported again this week.  It would not be surprising to see the industry crank out a Myn Bbl per day average some time this summer which would be a record.. "you are a go for throttle up."  "We'll see.."  So we're running a little behind on the grind but we can catch back up in a hurry.. A couple of cautions.. again.. the numbers are.. "fluid" and thus it bounces the computed exports around quite a bit.. my spreadsheet has been overestimating exports vs the reported actuals which lag about 2 months.. but "close"  Last year the spreadsheet undercounted exports during this time.. so...???

Oh we are also cranking out Cellulosic ethanol.. I crunched the numbers per day and it was about 6.2 k bbls per day.. If I recall..??  Not Zero.. but not enough to really change my grind numbers yet.. I need a more concrete estimate.. but it's starting to become large enough that.. "it isn't ALL Grain..." but they did RAISE the conversion ratio.. which probably will account for part of my slippage.. so again.. "wrong but close enough.." is my attitude about it at this time.. but at some point I need to start accounting for it.. when we get more than 2 small plants out of 200...then I'll worry about it more..  just say'in.

edit add: It's 3 plants and the output for April was 6.2 k bbls for the entire month or.. 229 bbls per day.  "uh-hum."

One last point.. We PROBABLY ARE NOT grinding ANY Sorghum now.. so even though there is some cellulosic.. it's probably MORE than OFFSET by the near 100% grind as CORN.. which would probably STILL LEAVE ROOM for the WASDE grind to be INCREASED.. especially if we start pushing 1,000 k bbls weekly grinds out as I expect to see at some point soon..  A good week.

"Stay tuned."

We've Ground about 3.69 Byn Bushels of Grain          (some of which is Sorghum         ) for Ethanol since Sept 1st.. I did CHANGE the conversion factor upping it to 2.78.. which is still lower than the LAST WASDE that went from 2.71 last year to 2.81..which seems pretty high to me...??  So we can argue over that.. but the 2.71 conversion still is what it was last year on Ethanol / WASDE Corn Grind.

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

**  Computed Exports maybe needs to be renamed.. "number that balances the U.S. Weekly Ending Stocks of Fuel Ethanol number with reported Weekly U.S. Oxygenate plant production of Fuel Ethanol with U.S. Weekly Imports of Fuel Ethanol and Weekly U.S. Refiner and Blender Net Input of Fuel Ethanol."