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Lines are cool, but market structure rules
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NoDakFarmer
Posted 5/20/2015 22:50 (#4582904 - in reply to #4582625)
Subject: RE: Lines are cool, but market structure rules


SE ND


Marked out are the A,B, and C pivots. The A pivot is where buyers initially stepped up. B is where sellers showed up and busted the minor swing buyers. This area of seller (B), is not structural since Sellers couldn't push it to new lows. The C pivot is where buyers stepped up and pushed price to new highs. This area is confirmed.





If you've been following what JP has shared with us since...forever it seems... This gives you an idea of what he is talking about, imo. The A-B movement was the up trend, and the B-C is the pullback. All markets do this in all time frames (Monthly,Weekly, Hourly, Tick). What is currently happening is that price is dealing with the action of $8.50 corn, and until its reaction is met, we won't be able to start the new bull movement. We are in-the-hunt for the "C" pivot.





The blue fork is of the controlling swing. As you can see the action in 2011 met the ML of the fork and it stopped and reversed. Even tho price went higher, it couldn't meet the higher ML target after reaching the LML. This triggered an hagopian. The red fork is of the pullback that we are currently in. The high in 2013 became the "C" pivot for the pullback fork. Price has an 80% probability of reaching the ML, but it's very unlikely that it can do it given it's steep slope. This is bullish and will likely lead to an hagopian at some point.





This action is what was highlighted in the black box. We are in a down trend (purple line). Sellers have continued to step down. After each LL is made, it confirms a swing high. The swing highs are market on this chart. There are smaller swings within each of these swings, and those swings have even smaller swings within them. The blue fork is the pullback that JP has talked about. Currently, we have fallen short of meeting this ML. Many believe that we will still reach it after a HL is put in, but if it were to not happen it will trigger an hagopian and would take price well below $3.





Drawing off pivots can be tricky, and to be done correctly must be done using related swings. The red fork is the controlling swing. A pivot is the high in 2013, B is in the area of the low in 2013, and C is the high of the pullback in mid 2014. The pullback fork is drawn from low-high-low pivots. The more that I look at what is happening currently in price right now, the more I think that this could be a center formation and could project balance of the large montly controlling swing. I'm not up to working on it tonight, but I'll share my thoughts on it some other time.

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