1234 - 5/20/2015 05:55

While your numbers look reasonable remember you have three unknowns here, not just one. Acres could (not saying they will) go as high as 88 million. Cool weather favors soybeans and that's what we have so far (if they're planted already). But probably the most suspect number is demand, especially export demand. If I remember correctly there was a short crop in both Brazil and the US in 2013. As a consequence there was record levels of early exports as well as domestic grind when the crop finally arrived. As we saw with corn the year before the previous shortage caused a very substantial increase in early movement to refill the pipeline and build some reserve in the end users' bins. Once that occurred corn disappearance declined to a lower level. Plus Brazil apparently has a huge harvest, 95-97 million metric tons which they are struggling to move to market. This means that there will still be beans coming from Brazil through early next fall. And Brazil has threaten to increase soybean acres next year as well.
I don't know that these things will happen but they should be kept in mind.