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Buxton ND | "For those of you who believe that the corn market will keep going down forever, just take a look at the crude oil market"
This got me thinking and figuring ! ! !
OK lets take a long at crude and compare it to corn, and (markets in general)
Crude's been a bear market for ONLY 10 month, corn 32 month Crude was about the last hold out in a bull market.
Corn stock have rose, the level of crude stocks have been BASALTIC higher.
All time record net long was 460k end of June 2014
" " corn 498k January 2011
That's a major WOW that corn had more net longs then crude to start with*****
Crude's 460k took from early 2009 (give or take net even) til the end of June 2014 to build this record net long. That record net long was just as the ISIS manure hit the fan,,,this is important because as the ISIS news hit crude as ALL READY at the point of "who's left to buy" and even that ISIS news was a "muted effect"
I will look at crude's rally from March 31st til April 28th
One would think wow,,, look at all that spec buying right ? ? ?
31st spec numbers,longs 516 shorts 298k for a net long of 218k
28th,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, longs 522 shorts 207k for a net long of 315k
NEW buying from the longs of 6k in a month,,,that's NOT JACK,,, so as I've said with corn where's all the net new buying to support it ? ? ? From the spec money side 80% of this month long rally has been SHORT COVERING. Guess what last falls corn rally was ? ? ?
Now there's a number of markets (markets in general that have went from a massive spec long positions to NET SHORT..... Not just wheat,corn,beans and in that order they went short...... SOOOOO what if they wanna go net short in crude ? IMO I could very easily see crude in a 2-3 bear market as the spec money goes "We've Leaving" as they have done with grains and the massive build of crude stocks gives them a pretty dam good reason to "We've Leaving" over time, the over time part is important.
In closing, I do not expect 80-100 crude anytime in the near future, and yes there's some history to back this up ! ! ! | |
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