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A sincere question for midwestern corn producers.
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Nebraska Sandhiller
Posted 4/28/2015 00:18 (#4541903 - in reply to #4541689)
Subject: RE: A sincere question for midwestern corn producers.


NNW Nebraska

Lots of irrigated ground in my area going into forage crops. Three pivots within 3 miles of my house grazing out rye right now & will be growing hay or fall grazing later in year.

Local bto cutting what they will pay by about $100 per acre less, or going to share deals.

Seed sales man say they are selling record amount of forage seed. I expect hay price to join the corn price.
This is a area where corn price is usually .60 to 1.20 under the board.




1234 - 4/27/2015 20:04

As you may already know I've been struggling with the decision as to how much corn to plant, especially in light of the precipitous decline in price the past few weeks.
Over the past few months there has been considerable heated discussion about, among other things, the cost of production, the cost of fertilizer, land rents exports, the dollar etc. in comparison with not just current prices but future prices. Today the Dec15 price ended at $3.82 and we're not yet 20% planted. There is a real possibility that the market price next year will be in the range of $2.50 -$3.00 when you take into account basis.
Furthermore we know from the Commitment of Traders that producers have hedged a total of about 80 million bushel of corn out of a possible 13 billion or 0.6% of new crop or an essentially negligible amount. Faced with these facts I can only come to three conclusions. One, the cost of production for the majority of corn producers is very much less than $2.50 per bushel in which case all the talk about hgh land rent, etc. is totally irrelevant . Or two, producers are willingly planting while fully expecting to lose serious money. Or three, producers actually believe that growing conditions are very likely to be so unfavorable as to make poor crop (in which case those whose crops are poor will lose anyhow.)
My question is for actual corn growers only. Why are you planting and just how do you envision this all working out? What are you thinking?
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