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JonSCKs
Posted 3/27/2015 08:48 (#4479952 - in reply to #4479618)
Subject: a possible answer..


data for how much grain is in farmer bins comes from surveys they conduct..

So the Surveys are "how much do you have as a percentage of the crop?"  idk.. isn't that how they do it?

IF they OVERESTIMATED the CROP.. then they would ALSO OVERESTIMATE the Amount of bushels "on farm."

IF they reduce the crop say 100 myn bushels.. then on farm storage obviously just went "poof."

Now that would make some sense..  

There's NOT alot of Wheat out here in the Country.. we got 0.0 bushels on our farm.. and the elevator is probably.. below average.. and there were area's that had a much smaller crop then we did last year.. as a percentage of normal... Wichita.. SW through Oklahoma for example...

Guys were scrambling JUST TO GET SEED WHEAT.. in fact one grazer I talked to.. He didn't care.. "heck I'll plant junk.. as long as something is growing to graze out.."  He didn't care.. Wheat.. Cheat.. Rye..  as long as Cattle will graze it.. that's all he was concerned about..

flip side.. we do have some strong dryland wheat holders.. AND we do still have some good looking heavy ground.. early planted.. rooted in wheat right now.. it's not all doom and gloom.. but it's "rough" and "tight" looking to me.. vs "flush."  Some times.. that's all it takes to turn the tide...

The Bears are piling shorts into a very tight market..What are they 50,000.. 100,000 K's short?  Do they cover before New Crop farmers Puke.. ???  And where do Farmers even HAVE the Bushels to Puke?  Oklahoma..??  Drought ravaged Southern High Plains..??

The Funds are waiting on paper bushels that DO NOT EXIST to flood a PHYICAL market...  Those bushels can go "poof" with a reports pen... in fact.. THAT is what I expect to occur.. at some point.. either old crop.. and or.. new.  

I believe we're gonna test the top side and find out before we get to Harvest.. how far we run...???  idk..

"I could be wrong.." 

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