Yal but ending stocks are falling.. They still have plenty of room to go higher on exports and ethanol. There is developing dryness in NW production belt.. as well as the continuing drought here in the Southern Plains..
We could see a quick pop over $5.00 here pretty easily.. ground piles are being picked up and most of the corn has moved.. I don't believe we have the stocks that USDA seems to think we have.. It took them a year but they reduced the 2013 corn crop.
Side note: we averaged 0.09" yesterday across 10 weather stations.. from mostly 0.02" to a high of 0.37".. pretty much a heavy mist.. but it helps.. a little.
The Wheat condition report did not decline much last week.. wheat is still small here and has not hit the moisture wall yet.. but we still NEED bookoo moisture to make this crop.. and we're talking mid 80's next week for highs. Once we bust through $6.00.. we're gonna pop pretty good on the wheaties.. OR it's gonna have to rain.. and the 6 to 10 day is still pretty dry.
Last year we got about 3.30" plus the previous July/August of 2013's 16" banked in the soil to produce 28 bu wheat.. This year our soil profile is...??? Probably more depleted.. and the Outlook has 45 bu wheat dialed in...
IT's GOING TO HAVE TO START RAINING in order to HIT THAT!!!
More upside then downside at this point..
"I could be wrong."
ps We've just about hit the Soybean export target for the year.. within 9 myn bushels with 5 months left to go.. |