Hi wkyfarmin,

To answer the guys below regarding the 19%.  I was making a point, and I obviously failed in doing that. A poster made the comment that "X" will only happen if "Y" happens.  This was pure over simplification on his point, so I answered with a oversimplified answer.  IMHO, there is never one element that like acres, or a drought, or RFS, that caused price to be in a place on a certain date like if reasoned here.  Instead it is the sum of all elements and more elements than are discussed here.  Question for you guys.  When you are thinking of buying a new tractor.  Do you buy purely on the color only?  Or maybe you buy this tractor because it has a certain size tires?  Or maybe you like the cab, or the nifty little computer screen?  How about price, or maybe dealer service?  No you don't.  You make a purchase decision based on all elements important to you on both a conscious and subconscious level - likely all these elements and many, many more.  So why is then that we spend hours arguing about yield, or acres, or whatever the hot topic of the day is - when that hot topic is no different than the arguing about the tires (or other element) on the tractor - and disregarding the whole tractor as a package is the most important?  Don't get me wrong, discussing these elements is important, but remember the one element is not the determining factor alone.   Price encompasses all elements that are discussed here daily, and likely thousands of other things that we deem not important or have no knowledge of whatsoever.  Price is the tractor and price knows all.

You are asking for the lows for this fall, which to me cannot be determined with high accuracy yet because the formations are not complete.  I have would have better luck projecting the longer term lows which some have already has displayed the necessary ingredients and others are working on confirming - to project at least the area of where price is ultimately going.  I have been discussing it for a long time, almost two years, and projecting ugliness into the next decade.  I don't do that to stir the pot like you may believe.  I have a reason, it resides in price and nothing else.  Like I have said, there will be opportunities in the meantime and instead of getting all emotionally involved thinking that you are gonna hit the home run, understand that this is not 2008, 09, 10,11 or 12.  It's different and so will be the outcome. The interesting thing is I can already "see" the next bull move evolving.  It's coming, truly it is.  Each person needs to do what they need to do to protect themselves in these tough times.  So, there is nothing wrong with buying puts if you so choose.  I have no interest in buying downside protection prior to the report.  There will be better opportunities IMHO.

To answer your question, I have no interest in "shining" as you suggest.  My purpose here has always been to share new concepts that challenge conventional wisdom  - and pass along some of the information that I was graciously taught by my mentors.  I understand that most of these concepts I talk about "here", are not much different than those who challenged the "chiseled" in stone fact at the time, that the world was flat, and the earth was the center of the universe 500 years ago.   The people that developed the contradicting ideas, didn't do it to be different, or to make a statement, but instead were open minded enough to see something that others were not able to, and then were willing enough initially to show other the door.  It was these people that ultimately got credit for the discoveries, but if they hadn't shared their information, how many more decades/centuries would have passed before the discovery was made?  Or would we all still be staying in our own little box, afraid to go anywhere because we might fall off the world and never return?  Many of them recanted their ideas, some were killed, but as history proved, they were correct.  The difference today is that the concepts I share are accepted by some of the best market forecasters that exist.  In fact, most market teachings have their foundations in what I talk about - if only a limited level.  Others understand it way better than I - likely way better than I ever will.  But I have been fortunate enough to have been "shown the door" by these people at that is my purpose here - to pass some of it along.  I, like most people here, either initially rejected it, or could not see what was trying to explained.  But as time has passed, and my mind as become more clear, I understand what they were saying was trying to help me find the path, and that problem resided within personal biases, and not the information that was being shared.  It's truly a process, of which few will ever investigate - fewer still will do the work themselves. 

As always, take care