| RayJenkins - 3/23/2015 12:39
How do you "know" there is no weather premium in $4.14 December corn futures??
given a reasonably sized crop on the way, we can trade down to $3.25 Z futures
which, I know, is not what you want to hear, but could easily be reality with farmers holding a large amount of the remaining corn inventory that will eventually get transferred to someone else beyond the farmgate...
I can make a strong case that harvest futures lows get set in mid to late August this year with normal weather...
Ray not attacking the poster but several people "here" have done a massive amount of research and investigating into historical yields and patterns. While no one person can say with certainty what the final yield or acres may be the statistics are pretty substansive that we will not have a 171 yield or as posted below the chances are 3%. The burden of proof has been given that a 166-7 type yield is not out of the realm of possibilty but a 158 type is even more possible. Does this satisfy the demand you need? While still a "reasonably sized" crop I would bet the farm that $3.25 is out of the question when you look at the acres involved. We can look at alalog years all we want but to go from a comfortable carryover year to one which may rival even 2012 is possible and I would be prepared for it. |
Jon, I have a question
