| Look at that price chart again above.. RBOB has a pretty good Contango (Carry in Grain lingo..) from Feb to April of $.2833 per gallon.. While.. Ethanol is only.. $.035... Hmmm.. what gives? Does this have anything to do with it? | U.S. Exports of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels ) | | |
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| 2010 | 324 | 519 | 1,153 | 973 | 414 | 387 | 603 | 707 | 929 | 834 | 930 | 1,717 | | 2011 | 1,364 | 1,425 | 2,003 | 2,865 | 1,743 | 1,604 | 3,036 | 1,246 | 2,525 | 2,895 | 3,634 | 4,117 | | 2012 | 1,819 | 1,785 | 1,992 | 1,775 | 1,397 | 1,410 | 1,519 | 1,206 | 1,191 | 1,284 | 965 | 1,313 | | 2013 | 1,518 | 1,017 | 1,312 | 967 | 952 | 796 | 830 | 1,182 | 1,299 | 1,206 | 2,134 | 1,525 | | 2014 | 2,054 | 1,605 | 2,139 | 1,585 | 1,263 | 1,431 | 1,600 | 1,292 | 1,354 | 1,888 | 2,166 | | | U.S. Exports of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels ) | | |
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| 2010 | 324 | 519 | 1,153 | 973 | 414 | 387 | 603 | 707 | 929 | 834 | 930 | 1,717 | | 2011 | 1,364 | 1,425 | 2,003 | 2,865 | 1,743 | 1,604 | 3,036 | 1,246 | 2,525 | 2,895 | 3,634 | 4,117 | | 2012 | 1,819 | 1,785 | 1,992 | 1,775 | 1,397 | 1,410 | 1,519 | 1,206 | 1,191 | 1,284 | 965 | 1,313 | | 2013 | 1,518 | 1,017 | 1,312 | 967 | 952 | 796 | 830 | 1,182 | 1,299 | 1,206 | 2,134 | 1,525 | | 2014 | 2,054 | 1,605 | 2,139 | 1,585 | 1,263 | 1,431 | 1,600 | 1,292 | 1,354 | 1,888 | 2,166 | | | |
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M Not to quibble too much with Insider.. but the market is not offering much "carry" in ethanol which according to Maize speak.. "A Bearish market will drive inventory into STORAGE".. which is not the structure today.. like it is in RBOB.. ??? |
So.. does the market consider ethanol to be NOT as bearish as RBOB..?? aka.. Insiders argument.?? These exports are.. pretty decent.. better than last year.. which lines up with Rapier's arguments.. "prices are not going to stay down here for.. long." and some people must recognize that.. | U.S. Exports to India of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels) | | |
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| 2010 | 0 | 1 | 178 | 141 | 0 | | 1 | | 127 | 0 | | 239 | | 2011 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | 0 | | 2 | 237 | 0 | | 2012 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | | 1 | | 0 | | 1 | | 2013 | | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | | | 387 | 116 | | 2014 | 255 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 67 | 3 | 657 | | | |
U.S. Exports to Philippines of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels) | | |
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| 2010 | | 1 | | | 1 | 1 | 0 | 69 | 0 | 22 | | 64 | | 2011 | 0 | | 1 | 73 | 0 | 1 | 93 | 11 | 1 | 103 | 1 | 0 | | 2012 | 22 | | 43 | 1 | 32 | 1 | | 1 | | | 1 | 1 | | 2013 | 56 | 92 | 124 | 63 | 85 | | 0 | 141 | 142 | 53 | 383 | 103 | | 2014 | 130 | 0 | 207 | 65 | 65 | 63 | | 125 | 188 | 387 | 130 |
| U.S. Exports to Korea of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels) | | |
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| 2010 | 0 | | 20 | 21 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 0 | | 2011 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 4 | | 2012 | 53 | 65 | 54 | 34 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 2013 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 31 | 40 | | 2014 | 33 | 90 | 98 | 74 | 65 | 68 | 1 | 64 | 25 | 163 | 146 | | | |
Even Brazil.. U.S. Exports to Brazil of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels) | | |
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| 2010 | 60 | 97 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 79 | 50 | 0 | | 91 | 91 | | 2011 | 0 | 63 | 587 | 1,569 | 563 | 218 | 691 | 0 | 1,118 | 1,143 | 1,714 | 1,754 | | 2012 | 628 | 223 | 236 | 137 | 0 | 322 | 408 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 91 | | 2013 | 152 | 140 | 222 | 46 | 63 | 63 | 0 | | | 0 | 57 | 341 | | 2014 | 570 | 309 | 331 | 223 | 125 | | 276 | | | 18 | 405 |
So maybe Insider is correct.. There is DEMAND for Ethanol even when we are cranking out.. 978 k bbls per day.. as we did last week. Do we need to drive ethanol inventory into Storage (which is only 54% full PLUS more available..) or not? IF/When Crude turns around.. what does that mean for ethanol? |
Oil prices
