Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | A while ago Maizeing was kind enough to post a chart showing the analogy between '09/10 corn and '14/15 corn. It strongly suggests how the corn market might play out this winter and spring. There are two additional factors that make this chart particularly interesting. First, both 2009 and 2014 had exceptionally large harvests. Second, For both 2009/2010 and 2014/2015 we are in the midst of major external economic readjustments, back then banking and now oil with both periods accompanied by dramatic declines in the price of oil. Below are three charts comparing the 2008 to 2010 period for corn, crude and ethanol. The ethanol chart isn't very good but you can see how ethanol declines following crude during both periods. The price of corn actually seems to be more stable than the price of fuel but responds quickly with prospects of lower production in late 2010.
What's interesting is that while the price of ethanol declines sharply coinciding with the decline in crude it's recovery seems slower and more volatile. Corn on the other hand recovers as soon as a production threat occurs.
Please note that the price of crude fell rapidly in late 2008 a full year before the price of corn declined. This is unlike the most recent declines in corn & crude which pretty much occurred together.
For what it's worth.
Edited by 1234 1/30/2015 11:01
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Attachments ---------------- 09 to 15 corn-page-001 (1).jpg (81KB - 170 downloads) crude 09 to 14-page-001.jpg (42KB - 184 downloads) commodity-ethanol.png (38KB - 170 downloads)
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