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Article on what happens when Russia does not play nice with USA.
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JonSCKs
Posted 12/18/2014 10:13 (#4248606 - in reply to #4248315)
Subject: yup.. pretty well sums it up.


Things get over blown..  Crude going to $148.. The stock market implosion in 08.. drought rallies.. etc.

However, things do re-align.. eventually.

Are we at economic war with Russia?  No doubt the markets are sending a pretty STRONG signal.

I admit that I do not follow nor respect currency moves as much as I should.. this article is a very good read.  Sat.. you keep saying that this thing is overblown.. GOLLY.. REALLY?!?  If they do not RESTRICT exports.. with their currency collapsing.. they are going to IMPORT INFLATION as in HYPER INFLATION.. as in Bread going from 3 to 30 rubles.. hmm start of the year 30 rubles per dollar.. today... 60 rubles per dollar.. okay from 3 to 6 bread (and everything else..).. but it's parabolic.. so.. where does it stop.. or does it?

So.. no doubt they want to get things tamped down on the export side.  As that will import hyper inflation.

That's not the only reason I was looking for wheat to go back higher.. I know this is getting old but even at $7.. 17 bu wheat is only $119.. which will cover.. your fertilizer bill.. some chemicals..  and some diesel fuel.. "big deal?"

I believe the wheat market has hit an air pocket of cash sales.. this is the time that NORMALLY.. the last of a good crop would be moving to town.. the 25 to 50 bu +   But since we only raised 17 to 27 bushels.. there's only like 2 bu per acre left to go to town..  everyone else is already out.. or holding out for $15...

Last year at this time we were about a dollar higher.. and ran from $7'ish to ??   $8.50'ish..??  And just like this year.. everyone sells as much as they are comfortable with.. early.. then watches it move about a dollar to $1.50 higher than they locked in... so.. "same ol samo.."

It's probably not a bad time to lock a little in.. but from an agronomic standpoint.. We stubble back a fair amount of dryland wheat behind dryland corn stalks.. and you can't tell the difference between the stubble back vs the rest of the wheat.. until.. about.. March.. May.. anywho at some point the plants hit the moisture wall...  our stubble back will yield.. 0 to 40 bu.. last year did 15..  Our continuous will do.. ??  10 to.. 55'ish.. last year did 25.. Wheat is a deep rooted plant.. wheat roots will go down 7' searching for moisture.. that is why we can grow it here in the arid High Plains.. However, since the drought of 2011 we have yet to totally refill the subsoil..

and..

Current U.S. Drought Monitor

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

So far that remains..  What has changed?  Should we get something like 2' of wet snow.. (we did get like 2" last night) then I'll change my tune.. but it's gonna take awhile to fill this sucker back up.

In other words.. the WASDE people can take their trendline yields x expected planted acres.. and forecast RECORD production (see Illinois..) out the wazoo...  but where the rubber meets the road.. golly where is it?

Again it's an old story but when a 2 myn bushel house only takes in 40,000 bu TOTAL of Wheat.. for the Year's HARVEST.. then follows that up with.. like 120,000.. last year.. I think they took in like 35 bu wheat out there this year.. It's just flat out empty.

Oklahoma NORMALLY raises 150'ish myn bushels of wheat.. they raised 1/3 of that last year.. so it's not just Russia.. it's also a little bit of the bare shelves here.  We should raise enough this year.. maybe more than last year.. maybe not..??

I'm out.. we closed it out last week.. so we are done on Wheaties.  And I now have a good book on for 2015.. sold some more yesterday for $6.80'ish.. lol.. so we probably got about another dollar rally yet to go.. (just like last year..)  lol.

The thing that you have to realize is that the WASDE counts EVERYTHING.. including the dust cloud going out the elevator at the top.. We don't.. nor do we normally HAVE as much as they say we do..  Just like China.. and it's warehouses full of rotting corn... holding half of the world's carryout...

Today.. it's a fine line between too much.. and not enough..

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