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NCND | If you need to move and getting nervous like hall talked about I split usually. Fix half now and then wait on rest. Not scientific but set a parameter and go. You'll be half right instead of betting house on a single hand.
On the discount side perhaps do a hedge with a broker then take grain to place that makes most sense economically ie lowest discounts. I have been doing some hta at an elevator 80 miles from home. I come out way ahead because their discount schedule is much less than ours.
The dollar going up, Russia in a bind, Cuba deal, record crops and oil drops. This is all going on at same time. Anything is possible.
Speaking of possible I've been thinking of selling all September futures then rolling them back as we invert in July. Obviously we need to invert but any of you guys use this method? If we don't invert I'll leave them on as new crop hedges then roll to dec or march to capture carry or just deliver early.
Have on some July/sept bill spreads at -8.5. I think we are at -3 now so it's working. Anything wild out of Russia and who knows. I just don't see Russia deal being done yet.
Like Tara my next sales are at 7. Uppers downers screamers laughers long or wrong. I'm no expert. | |
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Old crop spring wheat-time to set basis?
