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Napanee, Ontario | Yea thanks for the perspective 1234. I guess it boils down to what Fish said yesterday too. Sat (it was Sat, not Jpartner) is a trader and a I'm a producer. His time frame is shorter, so he looks at different metrics than I do. On his time frame, and given that he doesn't actually operate in the physical market, supply/demand fundamentals likely don't matter as much to him. But they matter to me since we operate the business, and I still do take offence to his claim that this rally is nothing to do with supply and demand. But whatever, it's been discussed at length and I guess we just will disagree LOL
Your point about the price is very important. If someone is going to keep a heifer (expansion vs cull replacement), he is essentially betting that the price he gets for the calf in three years will be comparable to the current price. If he doesn't hold that view, then the heifer will get sold. A big flogging in prices now will create a lot of second thoughts for guys going into the spring and deciding to feed those heifers into cows, or hold old cows for another calf. Guess we will see.. | |
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Note to Old MacDonald.
