I talked below about who filled the US export gap on Corn during our ethanol boom and subsequent drought reduced exports during 2011 and 2012

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=515544&mid=4194432#M4194432  

... who filled the gap during our ethanol expansion and the droughts of 2011 and 2012?  This table has it..

http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafiles/Feed_Grains_Yearbook_Tables/Exports_and_Imports/FGYearbookTable27Full.pdf   

Export/import and country/region 1/ 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Corn exporters United States 47,758 49,696 45,162 38,389 18,262 50,707

Brazil 7,178 8,623 11,582 12,674 26,044 22,041

Ukraine 5,497 5,072 5,008 15,157 12,726 20,000

Argentina 8,466 16,973 15,198 16,501 22,789 12,808

Russian Federation, Begins 2/1992 1,331 427 37 2,027 1,917 4,100

India 2,551 1,917 3,376 4,674 4,768 3,900

Paraguay 1,847 1,359 1,201 2,188 2,858 2,714

...

As you can see Brazil had a major impact in filling the breach going from 7.2 mmt's in 08/09 to 26 mmt's in 12/13 much of which is raised during the Safrina or Double crop.. There are reports that this double crop is going to be reduced on delayed first crop plantings..

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/news/Nov13_14-Brazils-Safrinha-Corn-Acerage-to-decline-due-to-Delayed-Planting

The lack of rainfall during October which delayed the planting of the soybeans in much of Mato Grosso, is also going to result in a reduction of safrinha corn acreage in the state. The subsequently delayed soybean harvest means that farmers will not be able to plant all of their safrinha corn before the ideal planting window closes in Mato Grosso about February 20th. That is the assessment of the director of the Mato Grosso Soybean and Corn Producers Association (Aprosoja) Nery Ribas.
..
Ribas estimates that the safrinha corn acreage might decline 40% in the eastern part of the state with a 30% decline in the northern part of the state and a 15% decline in western and southern Mato Grosso. Conab will not officially estimate the safrinha corn acreage in the state until January or more likely February. During the 2013/14 growing season, Mato Grosso planted 35% of Brazil's safrinha corn acreage followed by Parana at 21%.
..

There is a lot of slap in the numbers as the season progresses.. have these changing conditions been realized by the markets yet?

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf  

When you look across the trends in the tables.. they change significantly from historical to projected.. in some line items as much as 10 mmt's..  Currently the WASDE is looking at reduced US exports..

However.. is this really going to be the case?