Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | Why ask us farmers? There already is a futures market and some of the world's smartest people and fastest computers have already set the price at $4.13 and $10.09.
But since you asked let's think about this a bit.
What's average production? The ten year ave yield is 152 bu/A for corn and 42.8 for beans. What's interesting about those ten year averages is they include one 123 bu/A low which was 29 bu. below the ave. and one 173.4 which is 21 bu. above the average. This 152 average is just about in the middle of the range. For beans the range is narrower, only about 8 bu. but still the the 42.8 is about as good a guess as any.
Your second condition is that inputs stay the same. This is pretty much saying that rents & seed prices don't decline. Now the question becomes the price of nitrogen. Last week retail ammonia prices in Ill. averaged about $725/ton so this means about 43 cents per lb of N. and you need about 1.2 lbs per bushel of corn so figure 52 cents per bu. Since on average you can produce 3.55 times as much corn (152/42.8) as beans then beans cost at least $1.84 per bushel less to produce than the equivalent amount of corn not including the application labor and costs.
If you compare costs with the current futures prices it looks as if someone has already built in a premium for corn ( $4.13x3.55=$14.66-$2=$12.66 vs, $10.09). Either that or a healthy discount for beans.
One condition you didn't mention and to my mind may be the most important factor is the relative demand for corn vs. beans. We have already seen that for the past two years and most probably the next few the demand for beans is much stronger than corn. Corn exports and use aren't really increasing while there has been about a 10% increase in bean exports for the past several years. I don't know about you but if I am going to grow a crop I'll grow one that people want to buy (beans) rather than one they don't (corn). especially if it costs me less.
In summary I'll guess corn acres will be about 85 million planted, 77 harvested at 152 bu/A for a production of 11.8 billion bushel. And bean acres will be about the same at 85 million acres, 83 million harvested @ 43 bu/A for 3.6 billion bushels.
So now let's ask your question again in light of the above scenario. My guess corn has a 50/50 chance of being greater than $5 and beans somewhere around $12.
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New crop price guesses, lets hear them!
