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The 4.5 trillion dollar balance sheet. Continued QE
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jimsonweed
Posted 10/30/2014 06:49 (#4151675)
Subject: The 4.5 trillion dollar balance sheet. Continued QE


W Texas

http://fortune.com/2014/10/29/end-of-an-era-as-the-fed-ends-its-huge-bond-buying-program/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-24/fed-s-4-trillion-holdings-keep-boosting-growth-beyond-end-of-qe.html

The Fed's current balance sheet is 4.5 trillion.  This is a mix of mortgage backed securities, treasury notes, stocks, etc.

They have stated clearly that there is no plan to liquidate these assets, and that all dividends and other income will be reinvested in similar instruments.  Apparently any "profits" have to be remitted to the US Treasury, but I am unclear as to when that must occur.

With an average dividend/yield (my guess) of 3%, that works out to a roughly 11-12 billion monthly continued asset purchase program (and or remittance to the US Treasury), not including the reinvested principal.

In the second link, Yellen states that getting the balance sheet back to historical levels could take "until the end of the decade" and a supplementary FOMC statement is referenced as stating that maturing securities will be reinvested until the benchmark interest rates are raised (presumably next summer.)

I don't think the current ending of POMO is nearly as much of a departure from the status quo as is the proposed cessation of reinvestment of mature securities we are looking at next summer (I am skeptical that it will happen).  But if it does, that's when I would look for US Treasury rates to begin rising and asset values to be disrupted.  



 

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