USDA usually overstates carryout this time of year..  

Case in point a YEAR AGO.. http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/waob/wasde//2010s/2013/wasde-11-08-2013.pdf   in the Novy WASDE USDA forecast Corn exports at 1.4 byn and Carryout at 1.887 yet WE GOT..  http://usda02.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-10-10-2014.pdf  1.917 and Carry out at 1.236.. only missed it by half a billion bushels.. (not bad for Gov't work..??)

On beanies a year ago they said.. exports at 1.45.. carryout at 170.. got 1.647 and 92

So with THIS YEAR's forecasts for carry out at 2,081 - 500 = roughly 1.6'ish and Beans at 450 - 175 = 275'ish or thereabouts  ??? Just a guess.. given the Track Record..

Who knows if they have to reduce the crop size for the frost damage coming out of the northland...???