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Soybeans down 15 cents
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Posted 10/24/2014 21:13 (#4143641 - in reply to #4143159)
Subject: RE: Well, so much for that theory.



Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow
I just analyzed the daily direction of close for the last 3534 days of the continuous soybean contract (since Oct 6, 2000). I defined the direction of close as the difference between the open and settle. Down is when the open is higher than the settle, up is when the open is less than the settle.
Of the 3534 days, Fridays closed down 331 times, The other four days closed down an average of 336 times. On average overall the daily close was down about 47% of the time, up 50% and even 3%.
This suggests that the probability of a lower close on Friday is no more, maybe slightly less than any other day of the week. I did not test the idea if the Friday close is likely to be down if the preceding 1, 2, 3, or 4 days were up.
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