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Fuel price speculation.
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jpartner
Posted 10/22/2014 07:55 (#4139510 - in reply to #4139462)
Subject: RE:Jpartner, c-xr-1, Fishguts2, questions.


1234 - 10/22/2014 06:32

 JPartner, If I follow your thought process correctly you first established the original up trend with the blue pitchfork then looked for evidence of the pattern for the downtrend. First you set the new balance point at the high of Mar. 2011 and established the trading range using the low of June 2012 shown by the three parallel orange lines. then you examined the remaining chart for a "new trend" indicated by the black & purple lines but discarded them (at least for now) as "not structure".
If I understand your thinking correctly you believe that the current low is actually just reaching the orange balance line and heating oil should decline further, yes?
Without any training or experience in technical analysis I would have been inclined to establish an upper trend line using the point you labelled as balance and your black line that skims the tops of the succeeding highs. Following this I would have attempted to establish a lower trading range limit using the June 2012 low and some other structure, exactly where your lower black line lies. And from that I would conclude that I should probably buy fuel when the price hits that line at just about $2.34.

Sorry 1234, that's my actual chart, and it has stuff on it that goes way back.  I didn't clean it up for posting.

If I follow your thought process correctly you first established the original up trend with the blue pitchfork then looked for evidence of the pattern for the downtrend. First you set the new balance point at the high of Mar. 2011 and established the trading range using the low of June 2012 shown by the three parallel orange lines. then you examined the remaining chart for a "new trend" indicated by the black & purple lines but discarded them (at least for now) as "not structure".

For me, its always market structure first...Where are the buyers, sellers, and who couldn't do what.  If you look closely at the price action in 2011, buyers hit the market in the summer, but again did not confirm themselves by making newhighs...To me this is an automatic...I expect with very high probabilities that these guys will get hurt.  I also know that it is uncanny how often the whales step in where the guppies all get busted...maybe its the extra volume that makes it easier for them to accumulate unnoticed....So no matter how bullish or bearish I am - when somebody fails, I am looking for them to get hurt and whether the odds support a whale showing up or not

First you set the new balance point at the high of Mar. 2011 and established the trading range using the low of June 2012 shown by the three parallel orange lines

I show it as a trading range yes..but I was really looking to see how good the frequency was in price.  The orange lines were drawn forever ago, and were projecting time and price forward...they worked out pretty well.

I won't argue with your 2.34.  You could be dead on. I would need to do a whole lot more work do give definitive advise.  For me, I have been a casual watcher there because of the buyers being non confirmed - same with NG and CL...In HO, the weak hands have been flushed are no longer in the picture, and clears the way for me. 

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