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Western Iowa | I like your questions, but I am afraid of the timeline...
No way to know of a killer crop next year. I would say odds are against it, but will the market respond in time to buy acres or just be reactive when harvest hits and it isn't a home run? That would make a difference with an option in march vs nov timeframe
We will know SA acres before march, but not much for harvest or am I wrong? Weather and speculation on SA yields can factor in march I suppose
Demand likely will be fairly hot I would guess. When or will the price even need to ration demand? IDK
Carryover was tight. Market didn't really correct though to add some cushion, or at least not enough. There was some really strong basis buy buyers in my area trying to get by till harvest. Had harvest not been 2-3 weeks behind would they have showed their cards though?
As I get long in the tooth I see the market does not move on truth alone, much more emotion involved I think. That is why I get more unsure of things on marketing than I probably should.
Thanks for your input!
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Farmer on soy options
