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Charts without the Drama
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Posted 10/18/2014 16:58 (#4133625 - in reply to #4133468)
Subject: RE: Remember, discussion without the DRAMA.



Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow
With reference to soybean exports. While I wouldn't characterize potential soybean exports as "on fire" I think it is safe to describe them as strong. Below is an updated chart of the export situation as of 10/9/14. Last year in the 20 weeks from mid Oct to Mid March (before we ran out of beans) we booked an average of 680,000 mt additional sales per week amounting to some 13.4 million mt. With the 3.8 mmt we've already shipped, the 26.8 on the books and this puts us very close to the USDA projected 46.4 mmt (1700 million bu.).
Granted given the anticipated ample crop additional sales would be helpful but I think we can assume the current price is attractive. Perhaps additional demand depends more on whether end users can expand meat production rapidly enough to use the projected supplies. For instance, last year we exported 1650 million bushel at an average price of about$13 per bushel or $21.5 billion. If soybeans average $9,50 per bushel the same $21.5 billion can buy 2260 million bushel this year.



(soybean exports 10-9-14-page-001.jpg)



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