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Implications of FSA report
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JonSCKs
Posted 9/17/2014 09:17 (#4078930 - in reply to #4078895)
Subject: For Tara.. and that crowd.


"You're GOING to PLANT every SINGLE ACRE allowable by Ma Nature..." blah blah blah..

So.. did we PLANT EVERY SINGLE ACRE in 2013?

Cause and ONLY looking at Corn and Beans..

2013 Corn 95.365 myn + Soybeans 76.533 = 171.898

While in 2014 NASS is Currently SHOWING us.. C 91.641 + S 84.839 = 176.48

Looks like we planted Every Single Acre plus about 4.582 myn more...?!?  Where the HECK did THAT come from?   I know North Dakota eh?  where ELSE...???

http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/acrg0614.txt

Percent of Soybean Acreage Planted Following Another Harvested Crop - Selected
States and
United States: 2010-2014
[Data as obtained from area frame samples. These data do not represent official
estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board but provide raw data as obtained
from survey respondents. The purpose of these data is to portray trends in soybean
production practices]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :    2010    :    2011     :    2012     :    2013     :    2014   
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :                                                                  
               :                              percent                             
Alabama .......:     14            56            35            60           39    
Arkansas ......:      5            12            13            16           11    
Delaware ......:     23            64            60            70           58    
Florida .......:    (Z)           (Z)           (D)           (D)          (D)    
Georgia .......:     19            29            33            68           51    
Illinois ......:      2             4             5             7            4    
Indiana .......:      2             3             2             4            2    
Kansas ........:      3             7            12            13           12    
Kentucky ......:     13            30            29            41           31    
Louisiana .....:     10            18             9            19            7    
               :                                                                  
Maryland ......:     16            44            40            62           58    
Mississippi ...:      3            14            12            17            8    
Missouri ......:      4            10             8            11           10    
New Jersey ....:     14            24            19            15           15    
North Carolina :     26            47            55            61           45    
Ohio ..........:    (Z)             1           (Z)             1          (Z)    
Oklahoma ......:     28            30            73            42           62    
Pennsylvania ..:     10            16            24            12           16    
South Carolina :     28            45            56            84           60    
Tennessee .....:     17            20            31            35           36    
               :                                                                  
Texas .........:      1           (Z)           (Z)           (Z)          (Z)    
Virginia ......:     24            48            34            45           41    
West Virginia .:    (Z)            50           (Z)            11           27    
               :                                                                  
United States .:      3             6             7            10            7    
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.                  
(Z) Less than half of the unit shown.                                            

Now let's dump this into our spreadsheet and see what we are talking about..

              
 Double Cropping..          
 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       :    Area harvested : Yield / acre  :    Production        
         State                                                                                          % double crop   Production
                                                                                                              AcresMyn bu
 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   : 1,000 acres :  --bushels-- : -- 1,000 bu --  
              
 Alabama  500   41.0  20,50039%1957,995
 Arkansas  3,350   46.0  154,10011%368.516,951
 Delaware 183   42.0  7,68658%106.144,458
 Georgia 270   37.0  9,99051%137.75,095
 Illinois 10,050   54.0  542,7004%40221,708
 Indiana 5,490   51.0  279,9902%109.85,600
 Iowa 10,040   50.0  502,000 00
 Kansas 4,190   36.0  150,84012%502.818,101
 Kentucky 1,690   40.0  67,60031%523.920,956
 Louisiana 1,440   50.0  72,0007%100.85,040
                     :                                                                        00
 Maryland 495   44.0  21,78058%287.112,632
 Michigan 2,290   44.0  100,760 00
 Minnesota7,420   42.0  311,640 00
 Mississippi2,220   48.0  106,5608%177.68,525
 Missouri 5,650   44.0  248,60010%56524,860
 Nebraska 5,350   52.0  278,200 00
 New Jersey93   40.0  3,72015%13.95558
 New York 397   49.0  19,453 00
 North Carolina1,670   37.0  61,79045%751.527,806
 North Dakota5,950   32.0  190,400 00
                     :                                                                        00
 Ohio 4,940   49.0  242,060 00
 Oklahoma295   31.0  9,14562%182.95,670
 Pennsylvania600   49.0  29,40016%964,704
 South Carolina 440   29.0  12,76060%2647,656
 South Dakota 4,910   40.0  196,400 00
 Tennessee 1,580   44.0  69,52036%568.825,027
 Texas  125   27.0  3,375 00
 Virginia  590   40.0  23,60041%241.99,676
 Wisconsin 1,780   43.0  76,540 00
                     :                                                                          
 Other States 1/ 60   42.8  2,568 289fudge
                     :                                                                          
 United States ......:  75,869      84,058       43.3        45.4      3,288,833   3,815,679 84,058   45.4  3,815,6777%5884.39233,017
            5884.06 

Kansas is Actually the THIRD highest Double Cropped Soybean State behind North Carolina that does 751 k acres and Tenn at 569..(whoops edit to fix..) Mizzou is third 565, Kentucky fourth at 524 then Kansas is fifth at 503 k.. and I think THIS YEAR.. that number is HIGH.

There's a significant area east of me.. that will Double crop.. SE Ks.. and what I call the I-35 Corridor.. that will DOUBLE CROP DRYLAND Soybeans.. that LAST year with 15" upwards of 25" of rain (over there) in LH July FH August.. probably did..??  25.. to 35 bu DRYLAND soybeans.. that this year..??  15'ish..  The year I tried dryland d/c it made.. 2.  (I cut the mudhole and moved on.. "well that was fun..")

Again in 2013.. we did BOOKOO acres.. Next year probably ZIPPO.

Looking at this chart.. and No I do NOT expect Double CROP acres to YIELD what Full Season will.. in some cases they can.. but NOT THIS YEAR HERE... heck may not get anything on the irrigated.. we hope for..40 bu plus.. maybe 50's.. probably 35's.. hoping for 30's this year.. need ANOTHER 3.5 WEEKS YET!!!

So that 233 Myn BUSHELS of Double Crop Beanies.. look "at risk" (other than the South and Carolina's.. )

Okay well then the 15'ish Myn bushels of D/C Beanies in KANSAS at least look at risk.. to me.

FURTHERMORE.. did we REALLY PLANT 5.89 MYN Acres to D/C Beanies..

"IF REALIZED.."

I can tell you right now.. KANSAS is NOT going to plant 12% of beanies as D/C next year.. "bye bye.." and I expect the pencil works the same in a lot of other area's...



Edited by JonSCKs 9/17/2014 22:43
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