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Central IL | Not for nothing but there seems to be a lot of talk on here lately about the "big money" or "trade" being short the market. While this is clearly true in beans as shown by the largest short bean position in history of 408 million bushels held by the speculative funds, it is not at all true in corn.
The "big money" hedge funds that always seem to be the excuse for why the market is not going the way someone thinks it should, have taken the last $1.40 slide in corn to go net neutral only to reestablish a NET LONG position of 48 million bushels as of Sept 9th (CFTC release last Friday)!!! Not to mention even if someone has been short this market, why would they be nervous now with positions that should be so deep in the money that they could fall asleep at the wheel for the next 6 months and still be money ahead. If anybody gets "scared out" of this market who has been short, I am sure all the money that being short anything in the grain complex at any point over the last two months will let them sleep at night. With farmers and specs both mostly long this market, I truly don't know who to blame this slide on other than the lowest amount of fund interest since 2009.
And finally, not for nothing but as far as markets go the only "truth" that matters is what you can take out of the market or prevent the market from taking away from you. Fighting a market, bullish or bearish, feels great until you check how your balance sheet looks after you are done. I'm sure I will be labeled some kind of permabear after this, but being a bull this year is no different than being a bear in the face of the devastation and market move of 2012. Just cause I knew guys with 200 bushel corn that year didn't mean it was time to get bearish and every yield under 50 was some liar talking their position. | |
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Are the shorts scared?
