| Tara, you keep wanting a number, and heck I can't guess my own beans within 10 bpa until they are in the combine.
Isn't the bigger question whether USDA methodology can pick up on these things, and if so, what time frame do THEY develop some reasonably solid data from it? But, since you want numbers, I will SWAG, on a national basis, .25-1 bpa from frost and maybe a little more than that due to SDS, white mold, and whatever other disease is out there. The impact MAY be of a larger magnitude than that, but we have nothing factual to measure it yet. And even when we do- well, a lot of acres are probably affected by multiple things which keep them from being 100 bpa soybeans so how do you quantify exactly what happened in the end?
I have quite a few yield maps from fields which suffered from SDS, and it is so spotty that I don't know how you could hope to make an accurate pre harvest estimate. If you want to find 20 bpa or 60 bpa, you can probably find both and they might only be a hundred feet apart. |