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Rockford, IL | If you used the same formula I used before from University of IL based on last year’s FSA numbers in September of 2013 (91.4) you would get an implied final planting for 2013 corn of 94.7 (91.4/.995/.97). The final 2013 USDA corn planted acreage was 95.4 for a deviation of 99.2% (94.7/95.4) last year. Take the implied 2014 corn number of 87.9/.992 = 88.6 million acres for 2014. 88.6 planted acres *.91 = 80.6 million harvested acres * 171.7 yield = 13.839 billion bushels vs 14.395 billion bushels currently projected by the USDA.
Soybeans in September 2013 (74.7) could have had an implied final planting number of 76.3 (74.7/.996/.983). The final 2013 USDA soybean planted acreage was 76.5 for a deviation of 99.7% (76.3/76.5) last year. Take the implied 2014 soybean number of 82.5/.997 = 82.8 million acres for 2014. 82.8 planted acres * .99 = 81.96 harvested acres * 46.6 yield = 3,819 million bushels vs 3,913 million bushels currently projected by the USDA.
Making assumptions here but just some numbers to look at and consider.
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FSA September Data Implications on Planted Acres
