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Rockford, IL | FSA released their report this morning. They reported farmers enrolled 84.8 mil. acres Corn vs. last month's estimate of 83.3 mil. acres. Prevented planting acres of Corn was put at 1.58 mil. acres vs. last month's estimate of 1.54 mil. acres. FSA said farmers enrolled 80.8 mil. acres of Soybean vs. last month's estimate of 79.2 mil acres. Soybean prevented planted estimated at 841,000 acres vs. 827,000 acres estimated last month.
Based on the purely statistical formula's that farmdocDaily posted yesterday you could imply that the final planted acres for corn will be 87.9 (84.8/.995/.97) million and 82.5 (80.8/.996/.983) million for soybeans.
I am certainly not posting this in any way to go after University of Illinois so if Scott reads this please do not take offense. I am well aware that the FSA office are behind, we do not know the exact number of acres not certified with the FSA, etc., but this might be the catalyst that has been needed to get people to consider where the final planted acres could end up vs where the current USDA projections are and realize the shock that could be coming.
If you used the same formula I used before from University of IL based on last year’s FSA numbers in September of 2013 (91.4) you would get an implied final planting for 2013 corn of 94.7 (91.4/.995/.97). The final 2013 USDA corn planted acreage was 95.4 for a deviation of 99.2% (94.7/95.4) last year. Take the implied 2014 corn number of 87.9/.992 = 88.6 million acres for 2014. 88.6 planted acres *.91 = 80.6 million harvested acres * 171.7 yield = 13.839 billion bushels vs 14.395 billion bushels currently projected by the USDA.
Soybeans in September 2013 (74.7) could have had an implied final planting number of 76.3 (74.7/.996/.983). The final 2013 USDA soybean planted acreage was 76.5 for a deviation of 99.7% (76.3/76.5) last year. Take the implied 2014 soybean number of 82.5/.997 = 82.8 million acres for 2014. 82.8 planted acres * .99 = 81.96 harvested acres * 46.6 yield = 3,819 million bushels vs 3,913 million bushels currently projected by the USDA.
Making assumptions here but just some numbers to look at and consider.
Edited by Jamie2004 9/16/2014 12:57
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FSA September Data Implications on Planted Acres
