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Rain delays.. Long Fall harvest coming.
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JonSCKs
Posted 9/1/2014 13:20 (#4050276)
Subject: Rain delays.. Long Fall harvest coming.


Took in the weekend on the road and took some back roads along the way..

Couple of things..

1) There's pockets of "dry" affecting the ubber big crop forecasts..  Nothing REAL BAD.. but not ubber big either..  Some of the dryland corn in NE Kansas is pretty "eh"'ish for all the 170 bu talk.. gonna be a good crop there but.. 135'ish may catch a lot of it.

2) Soybeans.. eee gad's  what will SMOKED dryland beans from about the top 1/3 down.. Smoked as in NO LEAVES left.. yield?

3) Those area's probably got rains last night... some as much as 3"..  so now you got WET.. SMOKED beans.. ??  Can you fill beans with only half the leaves left...??  Sure.. just a question of how much.. Guys I talked to who can make 40+ bu dryland soybeans were talking maybe..??  12 to 15'ish.. ouch.

4) Everything is late.. I came home through Marion county.. the corn looks good.. yipper I can see 170+ potential.. but like I said above.. also some 130'ish.. some whole fields out now.. most with the headrows picked off.. taking their time.  Again it looks like these area's got dumped on last night..

BASIS..

So.. what's it worth?  They are still bidding $4.50'ish out in the panhandles.. $4.15'ish out by Dodge.. Hutch terminals are option..  Some are trying to push a much lower new crop basis.. but..??  It would not appear that much has come in yet to meet that..  Most of the irrigated out here is probably a month off.. so "got a ways to go yet" before seeing any significant harvest pressure... 

Harvested corn in a bin is probably worth a pretty penny now..

Heck even Hutch at option... can make almost a DOLLAR shipping to the Gulf.. which is at like $4.45.. Take it to Port of Catoosa and that would be worth $4.00..

Back to Bean's.. with the SLOW PROGRESS of the crop.. and the RECORD EXPORTS on the books.. I think that producers should be VERY AGGRESSIVE on PUSHING BASIS BIDS.. Everyone is going to NEED beans and do not have coverage yet.. it will TAKE MONTHS for the transportation system to catch up with booked exports.. probably not until next March..

You may see Rail loaders pushing Processors for bids...  things like that.

Don't be afraid to use the bins.. no need to dump at harvest levels.. frankly.. anywhere.. 

Again Kansas has 150 MILLION BUSHELS of UNUSED TERMINAL STORAGE SPACE...

Storing "Air" doesn't pay very well.. they are going to have to "BID IT" to "GET IT".. see that they do.

If you don't like what you are being shown.. go to the bins.. the last of harvest will probably be in December.. or 2015... at this pace.  If we get into a wet Fall and the boats start stacking up down at the gulf.. things will get.. "interesting."

15 bu beans are NOT going to fill anything very fast.. golly those dryland acres looked ugly.. maybe the rains will help that.. but "not much" left to save...

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