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If soy ac up 2 mil?
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Posted 8/31/2014 17:45 (#4048994 - in reply to #4048698)
Subject: RE: If soy ac up 2 mil?


I will repost this. Some bean talk a while back brought this up. One thing to keep in mind is that the acre argument is far from over. They grain markets should have their own book titled USDA/NASS 500 shades of gray. Acres will likely increase on beans in Oct.

William Fordham

Since May 1974 after WASDE began in September 1973, the final ending stocks in January after harvest was complete was below the original estimate that was made in the May WASDE Report, a total of 24 out of 39 years, or about 62% of the years.

The biggest exception was in January 2005 after the 2004 growing season by an increase of 245 million bushels from the estimate of 190 million bushels in May 2004 to 435 million bushels in January 2005.

Using the 2014 July WASDE estimated harvest acres of 84.1 million acres times 43 Bu/A will give a 185 million bushel reduction from the July estimate of 415 million, down to 230, if the projected use remains the same.

My bet, if forced to make one, would be that production will be less than the July estimate, and use will end up being more
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