I can't argue with what you are saying.. (gosh darn it..) good points.

North Dakota is key for alot of acreage decisions.. for the reasons you note..  You guys are #1 in CRP returned to production..  Montana is # 2.. not a big corn state.. but might have added wheaties.. where others flexed to more corn..??  Texas # 3, Ks # 4, SD # 5, Mizzou # 6.. that right there is 67% of what's come out of CRP..  Other than Mizzou.. and Iowa (# 7) those are Not big Corn Yield enhancers... 

I was going to link the CRP change table since 06 as well as the FSA acres but.. my laptop will not do it as well.. but it's below in Scott Irwin's thread.. so.. go there if you want to see it or someone else copy and paste below please..

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=497769&mid=4045470#M4045470

I don't see CORE Cornbelt acreage going AWAY from Corn/Beans.. but we did NOT get the expansion.. other than some pastures/crp.. lawns.. and even then Chicago plants a new shopping mall every..5 years or something.. so.. NOT MUCH expansion in the Cornbelt..  Over all.

It's the Fringe.. The Cotton in the South (which is pretty good fringe..) the Dakota's.. the plains.. and CRP that boosted acres..

Maybe Scott Irwin and crew can do a more professional job on the data.. but.. "that's how it looks to me.."  and these Fringe acres.. will lose $$$ according to 1234's work.. It WILL NOT PRODUCE at a loss... (for long.)

In the Modern era.. we've never planted over 86 myn acres at less than a $4.50'ish planting carrot rally in the Spring.. (my guess.. someone needs to check that out.. but believed to be true.)

Your probably not going to see 5 myn acres lost in the Cornbelt.. out here.. "different story."  The growth in dryland sorghum acres.. harvested this fall.. will likely not see another harvested crop.. until 2016.. as we flex dryland corn to CHEAPER to RAISE and usually LOWER YIELDING sorghum.. we will NOT be able to STUBBLE BACK to a ghost Wheat crop.. like I have done for the past 20+ years.. "here" on my dryland corn..
 I can get shot for saying this..(as I have a seed dealership..) but $275 a bag dryland corn seed "don't pencil."

Either the seed companies come out with some programs.. or "things will change."

jmho..


Talked to a guy the other day that paid 6250.00 per acre for some ground coming out of crp asked him his thoughts with doing this at these prices -- his answer was that's what they wanted for it and that is what it cost me the market will have to come to the realization at some point they need to price grains so that we can make a profit farming. 

needles to say I said good luck turned and walked away.. 

wow.. well at least we know where all the $$$ made over the past couple of years will have gone.. The CRP people who sold out made out like Bandits!!