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the last thing the corn and soya markets needed was..
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JonSCKs
Posted 8/30/2014 09:35 (#4046846 - in reply to #4046793)
Subject: Last 2 weeks..


The Last 2 Weeks Texas High Plains have seen a build in terminal corn stocks..

http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswgrstock.pdf

That's got to be railed in corn from somewhere..  maybe your neck of the woods..  As everyone else runs out.. capacity is freed up to go to the Dakota's.. Tx High Plains will not see much DRY irrigated for another month yet.. or thereabouts.. 

Here's my 14/15 Corn burn sheet from a couple days ago.. still think it's calibrated about right but might bump that 13.9 crop up a smidge.. thing is Southland acres.. aka Cotton flex acres are about HALF to 2/3rd's of what they were last year.. thus LESS..  harvested pre August 1st.. and so forth.  Flip side.. we probably got the snap back demand for exports last year.. we may exceed USDA numbers.. but probably not as easily as last year.. last year was like taking candy from a baby..

flip.. flip side.. Who knows what Putin does..??  I hate to offer that as bullish.. but it's definitely REAL... 

NOTICE that THIS YEAR's Dec 1st Stocks report is NOT MUCH bigger (8 myn bu at 10,460 vs 10,452) than LAST YEAR's AND I have NOT CHANGED useage which I think you can make a STRONG CASE that the ETHANOL GRIND THIS FALL will be LARGER IF they can source the GRAIN and find LOGISTIC's to get product to market..

as always... "I could be wrong."

fwiw.

2014/15JonSCKs91.6         Quarterly  
 PP - 1.6900.9282.816813910.4 June 1st2764  Stocks12/1313/14
      Add    CumulativeSept 1st989821
   Stocks      % HarvestedHarvestedTotalUseStocksDemand Dec 1st803310452
    Totalthat weekbushels     Mar 1st54007008
          ThisWeek    13910.4 1552049  June 1st27643854
 46  0.00050.0005720561551901     
August 1st47  0.00200.00152119221651757     
 48  0.00380.00182517821701612     
 49  0.00680.0034216541751479  Q 4 useage/wk 
 50  0.01070.00395415331801353  20112012 
 51  0.01500.00436014132001213     
 52  0.02000.0057012822061076  166176 
Sept 1st1 10760.02750.00751041181215966215 21582285 
 2  0.040.01251741139225914440    
 3  0.070.02534812622401022680 Harvested 
 4  0.100.03548715092551254935 prior to   
Oct 1st5  0.150.05696195026016901195 Sept 1st278 
 6  0.250.11391308127528061470    
 7  0.370.121669447529041851760 3rd wk904 
 8  0.500.131808599329556982055    
Nov 1st9  0.640.141947764629873482353    
 10  0.790.152087943430091342653 Q 1  useage/wk 
 11  0.850.06835996930096692953 20132011 
 12  0.900.0569610364300100643253    
 13  0.950.0569610760300104603553 273287 
Dec 1st14 104600.970.0227810738285104533838 35533731 
 15  1.000.0341710870265106054103 25.54%26.82% 
 16    010605250103554353    
 17    010355250101054603    
Jan 1st18    01010520599004808 Total Use til Jan 1st 

 

"cheers." 

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