The Last 2 Weeks Texas High Plains have seen a build in terminal corn stocks..
http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswgrstock.pdf
That's got to be railed in corn from somewhere.. maybe your neck of the woods.. As everyone else runs out.. capacity is freed up to go to the Dakota's.. Tx High Plains will not see much DRY irrigated for another month yet.. or thereabouts..
Here's my 14/15 Corn burn sheet from a couple days ago.. still think it's calibrated about right but might bump that 13.9 crop up a smidge.. thing is Southland acres.. aka Cotton flex acres are about HALF to 2/3rd's of what they were last year.. thus LESS.. harvested pre August 1st.. and so forth. Flip side.. we probably got the snap back demand for exports last year.. we may exceed USDA numbers.. but probably not as easily as last year.. last year was like taking candy from a baby..
flip.. flip side.. Who knows what Putin does..?? I hate to offer that as bullish.. but it's definitely REAL...
NOTICE that THIS YEAR's Dec 1st Stocks report is NOT MUCH bigger (8 myn bu at 10,460 vs 10,452) than LAST YEAR's AND I have NOT CHANGED useage which I think you can make a STRONG CASE that the ETHANOL GRIND THIS FALL will be LARGER IF they can source the GRAIN and find LOGISTIC's to get product to market.. as always... "I could be wrong." fwiw. 2014/15 | JonSCKs | 91.6 | | | | | | | | | | Quarterly | | | | PP - 1.6 | 90 | 0.92 | 82.8 | 168 | 13910.4 | | June 1st | 2764 | | | Stocks | 12/13 | 13/14 | | | | | | | Add | | | | Cumulative | Sept 1st | 989 | 821 | | | | Stocks | % Harvested | Harvested | Total | Use | Stocks | Demand | | Dec 1st | 8033 | 10452 | | | | | Total | that week | bushels | | | | | | Mar 1st | 5400 | 7008 | This | Week | | | | | 13910.4 | | 155 | 2049 | | | June 1st | 2764 | 3854 | | 46 | | | 0.0005 | 0.0005 | 7 | 2056 | 155 | 1901 | | | | | | August 1st | 47 | | | 0.0020 | 0.0015 | 21 | 1922 | 165 | 1757 | | | | | | | 48 | | | 0.0038 | 0.0018 | 25 | 1782 | 170 | 1612 | | | | | | | 49 | | | 0.0068 | 0.003 | 42 | 1654 | 175 | 1479 | | | Q 4 useage/wk | | | 50 | | | 0.0107 | 0.0039 | 54 | 1533 | 180 | 1353 | | | 2011 | 2012 | | | 51 | | | 0.0150 | 0.0043 | 60 | 1413 | 200 | 1213 | | | | | | | 52 | | | 0.0200 | 0.005 | 70 | 1282 | 206 | 1076 | | | 166 | 176 | | Sept 1st | 1 | | 1076 | 0.0275 | 0.0075 | 104 | 1181 | 215 | 966 | 215 | | 2158 | 2285 | | | 2 | | | 0.04 | 0.0125 | 174 | 1139 | 225 | 914 | 440 | | | | | | 3 | | | 0.07 | 0.025 | 348 | 1262 | 240 | 1022 | 680 | | Harvested | | | 4 | | | 0.10 | 0.035 | 487 | 1509 | 255 | 1254 | 935 | | prior to | | | Oct 1st | 5 | | | 0.15 | 0.05 | 696 | 1950 | 260 | 1690 | 1195 | | Sept 1st | 278 | | | 6 | | | 0.25 | 0.1 | 1391 | 3081 | 275 | 2806 | 1470 | | | | | | 7 | | | 0.37 | 0.12 | 1669 | 4475 | 290 | 4185 | 1760 | | 3rd wk | 904 | | | 8 | | | 0.50 | 0.13 | 1808 | 5993 | 295 | 5698 | 2055 | | | | | Nov 1st | 9 | | | 0.64 | 0.14 | 1947 | 7646 | 298 | 7348 | 2353 | | | | | | 10 | | | 0.79 | 0.15 | 2087 | 9434 | 300 | 9134 | 2653 | | Q 1 useage/wk | | | 11 | | | 0.85 | 0.06 | 835 | 9969 | 300 | 9669 | 2953 | | 2013 | 2011 | | | 12 | | | 0.90 | 0.05 | 696 | 10364 | 300 | 10064 | 3253 | | | | | | 13 | | | 0.95 | 0.05 | 696 | 10760 | 300 | 10460 | 3553 | | 273 | 287 | | Dec 1st | 14 | | 10460 | 0.97 | 0.02 | 278 | 10738 | 285 | 10453 | 3838 | | 3553 | 3731 | | | 15 | | | 1.00 | 0.03 | 417 | 10870 | 265 | 10605 | 4103 | | 25.54% | 26.82% | | | 16 | | | | | 0 | 10605 | 250 | 10355 | 4353 | | | | | | 17 | | | | | 0 | 10355 | 250 | 10105 | 4603 | | | | | Jan 1st | 18 | | | | | 0 | 10105 | 205 | 9900 | 4808 | | Total Use til Jan 1st | |
"cheers." |