| Scott, First off love your work.. Thanks for pointing out that my Prevented Plantings from FSA MAY NOT come off acre per acre as I showed in my corn crop production by state thread below.. duly noted. Guess we'll see what NASS comes up with.. My question today is WHERE did the acreage bulge to Corn and Beans come from and will it stay? Below I noted that PLANTED acreage.. well.. In 2006 we planted.. 78.3 Myn Acres of Corn.. and 73.9 Myn acres of Soybeans = 152.2 Myn acres..
LAST YEAR we planted.. 97.4 Myn acres of Corn and 76.9 Myn of Soybeans = 174.3 Myn acres.
WHERE did this 22.1 MILLION ACRE INCREASE come from? I dug back into work done here on the board earlier this spring and found this again... This is FSA data.. (except for 2006 which I guesstimated.. I wanted to go back to 06 as that was kind of PRE-Boom acreage expansion..) and so the totals are DIFFERENT than NASS data.. but similar trends I would assume.. The big shifters are 4 myn acres FROM Cotton.. 3.6 myn acres FROM Wheat.. and I haven't updated Hay but that will also be significant.. Edit add I highlighted the changes in the table year to year of over a Myn acres.... blue as an increase.. red a decrease.. bounces around quite a bit.. Given that we haven't planted over 87 myn acres of corn at a price less than.. $4.50'ish.. It would appear that we've got another big acreage cut coming.. OR the market is going to have to bid up between now and spring.. (loaded question I know..) anything you care to add? It looks like USDA is doing a pretty good job. http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=450810&posts=31&highlight=acres&highlightmode=1#M3655835 | PLANTED ACRES (INCLUDING FAILED ACRES) REPORTED TO FARM SERVICE AGENCY 2007 through AUGUST 2014 (2006 computed from NASS data..) | | | | | | | | Cotton | | | | | | | | | | | | | BARLEY | CORN | ELS | Upland | OATS | RICE | SORGHUM | SOYBEANS | SUGAR BEETS | SUGARCANE | WHEAT | TOTAL | Hay | Soybean D/C | | Computed : 2006 | 3,270,000 | 75,857,230 | 308,500 | 14,490,950 | 3,277,000 | 2,852,000 | 5,844,900 | 74,079,467 | 1,342,078 | 741,282 | 56,191,500 | 238,254,907 | 60,807,000 | 5% | | 2,007 | 3,831,319 | 91,145,611 | 282,222 | 10,431,153 | 3,035,585 | 2,758,190 | 6,957,666 | 62,856,803 | 1,285,771 | 736,496 | 59,289,144 | 242,609,961 | 61,789,000 | 8% | | Increase/Decrease | 561,319 | 15,288,381 | -26,278 | -4,059,797 | -241,415 | -93,810 | 1,112,766 | -11,222,664 | -56,307 | -4,786 | 3,097,644 | 4,355,054 | | | | 2,008 | 3,958,279 | 83,393,737 | 171,494 | 9,187,131 | 2,513,338 | 2,978,885 | 7,692,755 | 74,801,146 | 1,096,831 | 748,558 | 61,571,053 | 248,113,209 | | | | Increase/Decrease | 126,961 | -7,751,875 | -110,728 | -1,244,023 | -522,247 | 220,695 | 735,089 | 11,944,344 | -188,939 | 12,062 | 2,281,909 | 5,503,248 | | | | 2,009 | 3,285,417 | 83,841,811 | 138,945 | 8,879,600 | 2,577,714 | 3,106,526 | 5,971,470 | 76,405,645 | 1,196,147 | 725,492 | 57,250,750 | 243,379,518 | | 6% | | Increase/Decrease | -672,862 | 448,075 | -32,549 | -307,531 | 64,375 | 127,640 | -1,721,284 | 1,604,499 | 99,315 | -23,066 | -4,320,304 | -4,733,691 | | | | 2,010 | 2,608,781 | 85,373,233 | 201,987 | 10,614,698 | 2,369,018 | 3,605,071 | 4,854,862 | 76,318,369 | 1,188,813 | 756,226 | 50,813,797 | 238,704,855 | | 3% | | Increase/Decrease | -676,636 | 1,531,421 | 63,041 | 1,735,098 | -208,695 | 498,546 | -1,116,609 | -87,276 | -7,334 | 30,734 | -6,436,952 | -4,674,662 | | | | 2,011 | 2,331,406 | 88,864,419 | 292,309 | 14,230,579 | 1,679,806 | 2,661,218 | 4,946,168 | 73,773,362 | 1,239,582 | 864,524 | 51,882,873 | 242,766,246 | | 6% | | Increase/Decrease | -277,375 | 3,491,186 | 90,322 | 3,615,881 | -689,213 | -943,853 | 91,307 | -2,545,008 | 50,769 | 108,298 | 1,069,076 | 4,061,391 | | | | 2,012 | 3,422,216 | 94,069,934 | 231,213 | 11,867,918 | 2,005,484 | 2,661,090 | 5,705,484 | 75,879,254 | 1,234,992 | 721,496 | 52,964,689 | 250,763,769 | 56,260,000 | 7% | | Increase/Decrease | 1,090,810 | 5,205,515 | -61,096 | -2,362,661 | 325,678 | -128 | 759,316 | 2,105,893 | -4,591 | -143,028 | 1,081,816 | 7,997,523 | | | | 2,013 | 3,319,215 | 92,398,641 | 190,398 | 10,044,818 | 2,181,459 | 2,456,779 | 7,411,026 | 75,299,261 | 1,201,247 | 741,341 | 53,789,284 | 249,033,469 | 56,617,000 | 10% | | Increase/Decrease | -103,001 | -1,671,293 | -40,815 | -1,823,100 | 175,975 | -204,311 | 1,705,542 | -579,993 | -33,745 | 19,845 | 824,594 | -1,730,301 | 357,000 | | | Total Inc/Decrease | 49,215 | 16,541,411 | -118,102 | -4,446,132 | -1,095,541 | -395,221 | 1,566,126 | 1,219,794 | -140,831 | 59 | -2,402,216 | 10,778,562 | -4,190,000 | | | Percentage Change | 1.50% | 21.80% | -38.30% | -30.70% | -33.40% | -13.90% | 26.80% | 1.60% | -10.50% | 0.00% | -4.30% | 4.50% | -6.90% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2014 FSA incomplete | 2,606,113 | 83,321,976 | 122,037 | 10,459,437 | 1,920,460 | 2,720,206 | 6,174,418 | 79,248,771 | 1,050,468 | 550,522 | 52,568,697 | 240,743,106 | | | | through August | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | -663,887 | 7,464,746 | -186,463 | -4,031,513 | -1,356,540 | -131,794 | 329,518 | 5,169,304 | -291,610 | -190,760 | -3,622,803 | 2,488,199 | 2,488,198 | |
I also went back and looked at CRP acreage Changes by state.. | CRP Acreage Changes | | | | | (Combined general and continuous) | | | | | ENROLLMENT | ENROLLMENT | | | | STATE | AS OF | AS OF | | | | | 9/30/2013 a/ | 9/30/2006 a/ | | | | ALABAMA | 324,751 | 491,584 | | (166,833) | | ALASKA | 17,992 | 29,748 | | (11,756) | | ARIZONA | - | - | | - | | ARKANSAS | 239,593 | 220,275 | | 19,318 | | CALIFORNIA | 87,660 | 147,364 | | (59,704) | | COLORADO | 2,067,070 | 2,372,838 | 9 | (305,768) | | CONNECTICUT | 69 | 318 | | (249) | | DELAWARE | 6,292 | 7,702 | | (1,410) | | FLORIDA | 46,270 | 84,263 | | (37,993) | | GEORGIA | 309,963 | 306,326 | | 3,637 | | HAWAII | 498 | 19 | | 479 | | IDAHO | 614,629 | 800,342 | | (185,713) | | ILLINOIS | 992,878 | 1,049,876 | | (56,998) | | INDIANA | 263,237 | 307,976 | | (44,739) | | IOWA | 1,525,012 | 1,958,883 | 7 | (433,871) | | KANSAS | 2,355,936 | 3,085,226 | 4 | (729,290) | | KENTUCKY | 300,703 | 354,149 | | (53,446) | | LOUISIANA | 312,503 | 288,540 | | 23,963 | | MAINE | 9,151 | 24,226 | | (15,075) | | MARYLAND | 75,032 | 85,734 | | (10,702) | | MASSACHUSETTS | 10 | 74 | | (64) | | MICHIGAN | 207,836 | 271,730 | | (63,894) | | MINNESOTA | 1,380,320 | 1,796,620 | 8 | (416,300) | | MISSISSIPPI | 777,142 | 951,341 | | (174,199) | | MISSOURI | 1,124,688 | 1,575,206 | 6 | (450,518) | | MONTANA | 1,989,556 | 3,481,533 | 2 | (1,491,977) | | NEBRASKA | 887,448 | 1,291,598 | | (404,150) | | NEVADA | 146 | 151 | | (5) | | NEW HAMPSHIRE | 13 | 193 | | (180) | | NEW JERSEY | 2,221 | 2,535 | | (314) | | NEW MEXICO | 416,463 | 597,492 | | (181,029) | | NEW YORK | 47,567 | 64,471 | | (16,904) | | NORTH CAROLINA | 105,913 | 133,712 | | (27,799) | | NORTH DAKOTA | 1,780,910 | 3,371,582 | 1 | (1,590,672) | | OHIO | 317,073 | 329,639 | | (12,566) | | OKLAHOMA | 784,478 | 1,056,032 | | (271,554) | | OREGON | 545,282 | 541,360 | | 3,922 | | PENNSYLVANIA | 186,143 | 221,331 | | (35,188) | | PUERTO RICO | 1,109 | 1,032 | | 77 | | RHODE ISLAND | 28 | 28 | | - | | SOUTH CAROLINA | 121,672 | 213,218 | | (91,546) | | SOUTH DAKOTA | 972,299 | 1,515,227 | 5 | (542,928) | | TENNESSEE | 176,295 | 276,502 | | (100,207) | | TEXAS | 3,252,854 | 4,044,892 | 3 | (792,038) | | UTAH | 176,976 | 205,524 | | (28,548) | | VERMONT | 2,827 | 1,683 | | 1,144 | | VIRGINIA | 58,809 | 65,650 | | (6,841) | | WASHINGTON | 1,454,516 | 1,472,261 | | (17,745) | | WEST VIRGINIA | 6,322 | 3,410 | | 2,912 | | WISCONSIN | 317,096 | 616,707 | | (299,611) | | WYOMING | 195,470 | 285,172 | | (89,702) | | U.S. | 26,838,721 | 36,003,295 | | (9,164,574) | | | | | | |
Edited by JonSCKs 8/29/2014 15:57
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