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What's up with soybean meal prices?
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jackrabbit alum
Posted 8/29/2014 09:16 (#4044839 - in reply to #4044494)
Subject: RE: What's up with soybean meal prices?


southwest minnesota
As we get into the Oct/Nov/Dec time period you will see a dramatic decrease in soybean meal prices. The reason your seeing the high prices right now is the fact the that the beans are so tight. Bean basis is at +300 to +325 over the Nov futures, the meal basis needs to be pretty high to make that work. Most soybean plants in the country are either slowing down or shutting down for the month of September, which in turn makes a shortage of meal and higher prices. With a massive 84 million acre bean crop looming, every plant in the country will be crushing at max capacity this fall and there will be plenty of meal available. Look for basis to be -25 to -30. With that being said, it could take until mid to late October for that to happen. The only underlying factor that could keep the meal basis from going to -25 or -30 is the fact that the export demand for this fall is off the charts. A lot of plants have a good portion of their meal sold for export at better values, so that could keep the meal value a few bucks higher than expected.
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