At what point did the market realize we were losing the HRW Wheat crop?   (has it?)

We have rains forecast to start later tonight.. they could be significant to my SW..  We are scrambling to prepare for this.. but...  So I don't have a lot of time.

We have cooled off but the damage from the heat last week is very significant.. I posted two pictures below of dryland corn.. a stressed one and one that was looking very well..  It's along a road into a well.  I was shocked last night at the deterioration.. the good place looks as bad as the first now..this even surprised me.  I'm golly I've seen this movie before.. just like the HRW Wht crop.. "holding on.. holding on.. holding on.. but no moisture.. until harvest."

There are some fields that literally crashed..  4..6..8 bushel is all they got.  There's some that held on and made 40+

Flipping to the corn..  I don't think Illinois is in any trouble..  but from the fringe backwards.. we have.. we are.. and we will continue to lose significant yield potential.. until it rains.  For us down into the panhandles that could be this week..  For places like SE Nebraska.. and the other dry spots.. mentioned around..  You got to have MOISTURE to FILL.. we've pollinated more than one dryland crop with 100 bu plus potential that died at the end yielding 30 bu popcorn and 50 lbs or less tw corn..  "happens all the time."

jmho.. looking back here in a couple of weeks.. whether this event is significant to fry a 175 bu potential crop back to 160..??  I do not know.. for us here in the SW.. "happens all the time."  So the market is made up of many perspectives... there are those in the heart of "no problems" that do not see it...  and they may be proved correct..??

IDK...

all I know is that cool temps are NOT enough.. you also have to have moisture to make grain... and we need it.. now.

later. 

for some there's no way they can NOT have a bumper crop.. for some.. "hmm not as good as expected."  and maybe for some.. snake eyes..  No doubt it will go this way.. just don't know the percentages.. Condition reports lag..  nor do they quantify production..  We've ridden record crop all summer.. not sure it's gonna last... but it could..??